05 / Citations & corrections

Sources & Fact Checks

We checked these claims against the primary data before using them. Some are ones this campaign would like to be true. Those are marked false below and kept off the rest of the site.

7 Widely circulated claims tested against primary data. Two did not survive, and three needed heavy qualification.
The standard

Four rules

01

Primary sources only

Federal agencies, peer-reviewed journals, or the original publisher of a dataset. No figure is sourced to a news article that is itself citing something else.

02

Arithmetic is shown

Where we calculate rather than quote, every input and every step is printed on the page so it can be checked.

03

Assumptions are labeled

Any figure resting on an assumed rate (an investment return, say) says so and states the rate used.

04

Failed claims get published

If a claim that would help this campaign turns out to be false, it appears below marked false rather than quietly disappearing.

Fact checks

Claims we tested

All wealth-share figures below are from the Federal Reserve Distributional Financial Accounts, Q1 2026 release.

False "The top 1% could buy a car every day for 100 years and never lose money."

This is one of the most-shared framings of the wealth gap. It does not survive contact with the numbers.

100 years × 365 days = 36,500 cars
× $50,000 per car = $1,825,000,000

Net worth to enter the top 1% ≈ $11,600,000 → short by 157×
Average top-1% household ≈ $41,700,000 → short by 44×

A household would need roughly $1.83 billion to do this once, and about $365 million for the money to regenerate faster than it is spent at a 4% return. The top 1% of American households begins around $11.6 million. The claim is off by more than two orders of magnitude.

What is true instead: the richest individual American, with more than $700 billion, could buy a $50,000 car every day for over 38,000 years, and could sustain roughly 1,500 cars per day indefinitely from investment returns alone. That version appears on the Overview, with the arithmetic shown.

True until recently "The top 1% own more than the bottom 90% combined."

This was true, repeatedly, and is stated in the present tense all over the internet. As of the most recent data it is not.

2026 Q1 · Top 1%: 31.63% · Bottom 90%: 32.04%
→ the bottom 90% hold 0.41 points more

But in 22 separate quarters between 2014 Q2 and 2025 Q4, the top 1% did hold more.
2025 Q4 · Top 1%: 31.81% · Bottom 90%: 31.78% → claim was true

The two figures have been within roughly half a percentage point of each other for over a decade, crossing back and forth. Anyone repeating this claim should date it to a specific quarter. We do not use it on this site.

False "The top 1% own half of all wealth in America."

The top 1% hold 31.63% of US household net worth, which is under a third rather than a half. The claim appears to conflate the top 1% with the top 10%, who hold 67.96%.

The accurate version is arguably starker and is used on this site: the top 10% hold just over two thirds of everything, and the bottom half hold 2.45%.

Needs context "$50 trillion was transferred from the bottom 90% to the top 1%."

This traces to a real 2020 RAND Corporation working paper by Carter Price and Kathryn Edwards. The figure is genuine but the word "transferred" is not what the paper measures.

RAND calculated a counterfactual: what aggregate income below the 90th percentile would have been from 1975 to 2018 if income growth had stayed as evenly distributed as it was in the three decades after World War II. The gap between that counterfactual and what actually happened totals $47 trillion over 1975–2018.

That is a measure of divergence from a hypothetical baseline, not a documented movement of $47 trillion from specific people to other specific people. The distinction matters, and this site cites the figure only with that framing.

Supported, with a caveat "US wealth inequality is at an all-time high."

Within the Federal Reserve series, which begins in 1989, the top 1% share reached its record of 31.81% in 2025 Q4. The latest reading, 31.63%, is marginally below that peak but higher than any quarter before 2024.

The caveat is the window. "All-time" is doing work the data cannot support: this series is 37 years old. Longer historical estimates exist from academic reconstructions, but they use different methods and are not directly comparable. The defensible statement is: the highest level in the 37 years the Federal Reserve has measured it.

Needs context "The richest Americans pay a 3.4% tax rate."

ProPublica's 2021 reporting, based on IRS records, found the 25 wealthiest Americans saw their combined wealth rise $401 billion from 2014 to 2018 while paying $13.6 billion in federal income tax, which ProPublica termed a "true tax rate" of 3.4%.

This is not the statutory income tax rate, and it is not how tax liability is legally calculated. It measures tax paid against growth in wealth, most of which is unrealized capital gains that US law does not tax until an asset is sold. The 3.4% figure is accurate as ProPublica defines it; it is not a rate anyone paid on income. This site labels it accordingly.

Overstated as usually quoted "If 3.5% of people protest, the movement always wins."

The underlying research is real. Erica Chenoweth and Maria Stephan's NAVCO dataset covers 323 major campaigns worldwide between 1900 and 2006, and found that 53% of non-violent campaigns succeeded against 26% of violent ones. No campaign in the dataset that reached 3.5% peak participation failed.

What is overstated is the leap from that to a rule. Three limits matter:

1. It describes a set of past cases. It does not predict what happens next.
2. "Success" was defined narrowly: full achievement of regime change, anti-occupation or secession goals within a year of peak activity. Most campaigns in the dataset pursued those maximalist aims, not ordinary domestic policy change.
3. Other scholars have criticized the dataset as too narrow in scope.

We do not use this claim anywhere on the site. The caveats are large enough, and the goals studied are far enough from US domestic policy, that we judged it could not be presented responsibly in a short form. It is documented here because it is widely repeated and people deserve to know what is behind it.

Full citations

Every source

Grouped by subject. All sources are United States federal agencies, peer-reviewed journals, or the original publisher of the dataset.

Wealth distribution

  1. Federal Reserve: Distributional Financial Accounts (DFA) Quarterly distribution of US household wealth since 1989. The source for every wealth-share figure and both charts on this site. Q1 2026 release. federalreserve.gov: DFA interactive ↗ Raw data: federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/download/dfa-networth-levels.csv
  2. Congressional Budget Office: Trends in the Distribution of Family Wealth, 1989 to 2022 October 2024. Top 10% held 60% of wealth in 2022; top 1% share rose from 23% to 27% over the period. Uses a broader wealth definition including accrued Social Security. cbo.gov/publication/60807 ↗
  3. Federal Reserve: Survey of Consumer Finances, 2022 Median US household net worth $192,900; mean $1.06 million. Also the source for racial wealth gap figures: White–Black and White–Hispanic median wealth gaps each exceeded $220,000 in 2022. federalreserve.gov: SCF ↗
  4. Institute for Policy Studies / Forbes 935 US billionaires holding $8.1 trillion combined (2025 analysis of the Forbes real-time list), up from 813 billionaires and $6.7 trillion at the 2024 close. inequality.org ↗

Income, pay and work

  1. US Census Bureau: Income in the United States: 2024 (P60-286) Real median household income $83,730 in 2024, not statistically different from $82,690 in 2023 or $83,260 in 2019. census.gov: P60-286 ↗
  2. Economic Policy Institute: CEO Pay CEO-to-worker compensation ratio of 281-to-1 in 2024, up from 31-to-1 in 1978. Realized CEO compensation averaged nearly $23 million at the 350 largest US firms and has risen 1,094% since 1978, against 26% for typical worker pay. epi.org/publication/ceo-pay ↗
  3. Economic Policy Institute: The Productivity–Pay Gap From 1979 to 2025, net productivity grew 90.2% while pay for the typical worker grew 33.0%. epi.org/productivity-pay-gap ↗
  4. RAND Corporation: Trends in Income From 1975 to 2018 Price & Edwards, 2020. Working paper WRA516-1. The $47 trillion counterfactual gap. See fact check above for how this figure should and should not be described. rand.org: WRA516-1 ↗
  5. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Union Members, 2025 Union members' median usual weekly earnings $1,404 vs $1,174 for non-union workers. Private-sector union membership rate fell 10.9 percentage points from 1983 to 2024. bls.gov: Union Members Summary ↗
  6. US Department of Labor: Minimum wage Federal minimum wage $7.25/hour since 24 July 2009, the longest freeze since the Fair Labor Standards Act established it in 1938. 30 states and DC set a higher floor as of 2026; 20 states do not. dol.gov: State minimum wage laws ↗

Mobility, health and household finances

  1. Chetty et al.: "The fading American dream: Trends in absolute income mobility since 1940" Science, 2017. Share of children out-earning their parents fell from about 90% for the 1940 birth cohort to about 50% for those born in the 1980s. science.org ↗
  2. Chetty et al.: "The Association Between Income and Life Expectancy in the United States, 2001–2014" JAMA, 2016. At age 40, men in the top 1% of income had a life expectancy about 15 years longer than men in the bottom 1%; for women the gap was about 10 years. Stanford SIEPR ↗
  3. Federal Reserve: Report on the Economic Well-Being of US Households (SHED) 63% of US adults said they could cover a $400 emergency expense using cash or its equivalent, down from a high of 68% in 2021. federalreserve.gov: SHED ↗
  4. Experian: State of the Automotive Finance Market, Q1 2026 Average new-vehicle monthly payment $770, a record. Average new-vehicle loan amount $43,925. Average used-vehicle payment $531. experian.com ↗

Housing and inheritance

  1. National Association of Home Builders: Households Priced Out of the Housing Market, 2025 About 100.6 million of 141.1 million US households (74.9%) could not afford a median-priced new home. nahb.org ↗
  2. Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies The national median single-family home price reached roughly five times median household income, near record highs. jchs.harvard.edu ↗
  3. National Association of Realtors: median existing-home price $440,600 in June 2026, an all-time high and the 36th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. Used for the housing comparison on the Overview page. nar.realtor: existing-home sales ↗ Census reports a median new-home price of $398,300 for the same month; the higher existing-home figure is used because it is the larger and therefore more conservative number for that comparison
  4. Federal Reserve G.19 Consumer Credit release Total US student loan debt outstanding of $1.866 trillion as of March 2026, held by about 42.6 million federal borrowers plus private loans. federalreserve.gov: G.19 ↗
  5. US Census Bureau: adult population Approximately 267 million US residents aged 18 and over in 2025, from a total population of about 342 million. Used with the Federal Reserve SHED figure to size the $400 emergency comparison. census.gov: population estimates ↗
  6. Cerulli Associates: wealth transfer projections $84.4 trillion projected to transfer through 2045, of which $35.8 trillion (42%) from high- and ultra-high-net-worth households making up 1.5% of all households. Cerulli has since revised the projection upward to $124 trillion through 2048. cerulli.com ↗ Projection, not measurement. Estimates vary widely between firms.

Taxation

  1. ProPublica: "The Secret IRS Files" 2021. The 25 wealthiest Americans' wealth rose $401 billion from 2014 to 2018; they paid $13.6 billion in federal income tax. See fact check above regarding the "true tax rate" framing. propublica.org: methodology ↗
  2. Internal Revenue Service: capital gains and the Net Investment Income Tax Long-term capital gains are taxed at 0%, 15% or 20% depending on taxable income. The 3.8% NIIT applies above statutory thresholds, giving a combined top rate of 23.8% against a top ordinary-income rate of 37%. irs.gov: Topic 409 ↗ Also: irs.gov Topic 559, Net investment income tax
  3. Joint Committee on Taxation / Congressional Budget Office: stepped-up basis JCT estimates stepped-up basis accounts for $72.5 billion in forgone federal revenue in 2026, about a quarter of all capital gains tax revenue. CBO found that in 2019, 56% of the benefit (~$22 billion) went to the top 20% of decedents' estates, with $7 billion to the top 1%. cbo.gov: Taxation of assets transferred at death ↗

Politics, lobbying and campaign finance

  1. OpenSecrets: federal lobbying totals $5.08 billion spent on federal lobbying in 2025, a record and an 11% rise on 2024 after inflation. 15,768 organizations reported lobbying activity, up from 14,061. Compiled from Lobbying Disclosure Act filings. opensecrets.org: Federal lobbying ↗ OpenSecrets is a non-partisan research group tracking money in US politics
  2. OpenSecrets: 2024 election spending Projected total cost of the 2024 federal cycle of at least $15.9 billion; outside spending topped $2.6 billion by August 2024. Note that the 2020 cycle was larger in inflation-adjusted terms, at roughly $18.3 billion in 2024 dollars. opensecrets.org ↗
  3. OpenSecrets: revolving door Use of the revolving door between Congress and the private sector is roughly evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. At least 672 former officials, military officers and members of Congress worked for the top 20 defense contractors in 2022. opensecrets.org: Former members ↗
  4. Gilens & Page (2014), Perspectives on Politics "Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens." Analysis of ~1,800 policy outcomes. Contested; see the rebuttal and response below. cambridge.org ↗
  5. Bashir (2015), Research & Politics "Testing Inferences about American Politics: A Review of the 'Oligarchy' Result." Peer-reviewed critique arguing the original test underestimates the influence of median-income citizens because group preferences are highly correlated. sagepub.com ↗
  6. Gilens (2016), Research & Politics "Simulating representation: The devil's in the detail." Gilens' published response to Bashir. The exchange remains unresolved in the literature. sagepub.com ↗
  7. Supreme Court and DC Circuit decisions Buckley v. Valeo (1976), Citizens United v. FEC (2010, 5–4), and SpeechNow.org v. FEC (DC Cir. 2010). Primary legal texts; the first two are published by the Supreme Court. fec.gov: Court cases ↗

Tax avoidance, enforcement and federal revenue

  1. Internal Revenue Service: Tax Gap Projections for Tax Year 2022 (Publication 5869) Projected gross tax gap of $696 billion, of which $539 billion is underreporting, $94 billion underpayment and $63 billion non-filing. Individual income tax accounts for $514 billion. After late payments and enforcement the net gap is $606 billion. Voluntary compliance rate 85.0%. irs.gov: Publication 5869 ↗ Covers all taxpayers and includes error as well as evasion; the IRS does not attribute it to any income group
  2. Government Accountability Office: IRS audit rates Audit rates for taxpayers with income above $10 million fell from 21.2% in 2010 to 3.9% in 2019; for $5 million to $10 million, from 13.5% to 1.4%. About 1.1% of millionaire returns were audited in 2022. gao.gov: GAO-22-104960 ↗ See also GAO-24-106112 on high-income and high-wealth audits
  3. Joint Committee on Taxation: carried interest JCT scored legislation fully closing the provision at $63.1 billion over ten years in 2023. Narrower bills that address only the recharacterisation of income, not the deferral, score at $15.6 billion. jct.gov ↗
  4. Estate tax: IRS and Congressional Budget Office The 2026 federal estate and gift tax exemption is $15 million per person, $30 million for a married couple. Fewer than 0.2% of estates owe any federal estate tax. Taxable estates pay about 14.1% of their value on average, against a 40% top statutory rate. cbo.gov: Understanding Federal Estate and Gift Taxes ↗
  5. Congressional Budget Office: Monthly Budget Review, fiscal year 2025 Federal revenues of $5.2 trillion, more than half from individual income tax. Deficit of $1.8 trillion, equal to 5.9% of GDP. Net interest on the public debt passed $1 trillion for the first time. cbo.gov: MBR fiscal year 2025 ↗
  6. Internal Revenue Code and IRS guidance on the mechanics described Realization of capital gains (IRS Topic 409); stepped-up basis at death (26 U.S.C. §1014); Net Investment Income Tax (IRS Topic 559). Securities-backed lines of credit are ordinary commercial products offered by major US brokerages. irs.gov: Topic 409 ↗
  7. S&P Dow Jones Indices: S&P 500 buybacks Buybacks reached a record $942.5 billion in 2024, up 18.5% on $795.2 billion in 2023. Total shareholder returns including dividends reached $1.572 trillion. spglobal.com ↗
  8. Stock ownership by wealth group, calculated from Federal Reserve DFA US households hold $55.15 trillion in corporate equities and mutual fund shares. Top 1%: 50.13%. Top 10%: 87.33%. Bottom 50%: 1.06%, about $0.59 trillion. Figures computed by this site from the Fed's published asset table for Q1 2026; the arithmetic is a straight division and can be reproduced from the CSV. federalreserve.gov: raw DFA data ↗
  9. SEC Rule 10b-18 and the STOCK Act Rule 10b-18, adopted in 1982, creates a safe harbor from manipulation liability for companies repurchasing their own shares within set conditions. The STOCK Act (2012) requires members of Congress to disclose securities transactions within 45 days; the standard late-filing penalty is $200. sec.gov ↗

Consequences, mobility and the research dispute

  1. Economic Policy Institute: the productivity–pay gap in dollars EPI estimates that had pay tracked productivity since 1979, the typical worker would earn about $16.40 more per hour today. epi.org ↗
  2. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED: the productivity–pay chart on that page The chart is built by this site from three published series: nonfarm business real output per hour (OPHNFB), average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory employees (AHETPI), and CPI-U (CPIAUCSL) used to deflate. Annual averages, indexed to 1964. On this construction output per hour rose 225% and real hourly pay rose 19% through 2025. It differs from EPI's version because EPI uses net productivity and total compensation including benefits; both are shown on the page. fred.stlouisfed.org: OPHNFB ↗ Raw CSVs: fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=OPHNFB (also AHETPI, CPIAUCSL)
  3. Solon (1992), Zimmerman (1992) and later replications Standard US estimates of the intergenerational elasticity of earnings cluster near 0.4, with some later methodological work putting it closer to 0.5. Estimated elasticity of wealth is about 0.38. nber.org: The Correlation of Wealth Across Generations ↗
  4. Meyer & Sullivan: Consumption and Income Inequality in the US Since the 1960s NBER Working Paper 23655. Argues consumption is a better measure of living standards than income. Reports that since the early 1960s the 90/10 ratio rose 26% for after-tax income but only 7% for consumption. This is the strongest published objection to the framing used across this whole site, and it is cited for that reason. nber.org: NBER WP 23655 ↗
  5. HHS poverty guidelines, 2026 The 2026 federal poverty guideline for a household of two is $21,640. Full-time work at the federal minimum wage ($7.25 × 40 hours × 52 weeks) yields $15,080 before tax. federalregister.gov ↗

Collective action, labor and civic mechanisms

  1. National Labor Relations Act, Section 7 (29 U.S.C. §157) The statutory right to self-organization, collective bargaining and "other concerted activities." Public law. Coverage excludes agricultural workers, domestic workers, independent contractors and supervisors. nlrb.gov: Employee rights ↗
  2. National Labor Relations Board: election statistics 2,100 representation petitions filed in FY2025; unions won 81.9% of representation elections. Win rates first exceeded 70% in 2023 for the first time in fifteen years, having averaged below 60% before the 2010s. nlrb.gov: Petitions and elections ↗
  3. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Major Work Stoppages 30 major stoppages began in 2025 involving 306,800 workers; 31 in 2024; 33 in 2023 involving 458,900 workers. "Major" means 1,000+ workers for at least one full shift, including both strikes and employer lockouts. bls.gov: Work stoppages ↗
  4. Gallup: Labor Union Approval, August 2025 68% of US adults approve of labor unions. Party breakdown published in full on the What You Can Do page: 90% of Democrats, 69% of independents, 41% of Republicans. Gallup is a non-partisan polling organization. gallup.com: Labor unions trend ↗
  5. Chenoweth & Stephan: NAVCO dataset and Why Civil Resistance Works (2011) 323 major campaigns, 1900–2006. 53% of non-violent campaigns succeeded against 26% of violent ones. Source of the "3.5% rule". See the fact check above for the limits of that figure. ICNC: research summary ↗
  6. US Census Bureau: Voting and Registration, November 2024 65.3% of US citizens voted. Census analysis found non-voters were younger and had lower family incomes than voters. census.gov: P20-587 ↗
  7. Portland State University: "Who Votes for Mayor?" Typical US municipal turnout of 15–27%. In 10 of the 30 largest cities mayoral turnout was below 15%; single digits in Las Vegas, Fort Worth and Dallas. 46.7% of registered voters over 65 voted, against 9% of those aged 18–34. whovotesformayor.org ↗
  8. Ballotpedia: states with initiative or referendum 26 states allow statewide citizen-initiated ballot measures; 24 do not. 21 allow initiated statutes, 18 allow initiated constitutional amendments, 15 allow both, and 23 allow citizen-initiated veto referendums. ballotpedia.org ↗
  9. Ballot measure outcomes, 2017–2024 Medicaid expansion approved by citizen ballot measure in Maine (2017), Idaho, Nebraska and Utah (2018), Missouri and Oklahoma (2020) and South Dakota (2022). Paid sick leave approved in November 2024 in Alaska (57%), Missouri (58%) and Nebraska (74%). Minimum wage increases approved the same day in Alaska and Missouri. ballotpedia.org ↗ Certified election results; each state's Secretary of State publishes the official canvass
  10. Congressional Management Foundation: constituent influence surveys Nine surveys of congressional staff, 2004–2016. 94% said in-person constituent visits would influence an undecided lawmaker; 92% said the same of individualised email. 46% said constituent visits carry "a lot" of influence against 8% for lobbyist visits. CMF is a non-partisan non-profit working with offices of both parties. congressfoundation.org ↗
Corrections

Found an error?

Every figure here is checkable against a public dataset. If a number on this site is wrong, out of date, or misframed, it should be corrected, not defended. The Federal Reserve updates the wealth data quarterly, and this site is versioned against a specific release.

Current release: Federal Reserve DFA, Q1 2026.